Helmut Norpoth, a political science professor from Stony Brook University, just announced that there’s a 97% chance Donald Trump will take home a win come the 2016 election. More specifically, Norpoth predicts that Trump has a 97% chance of beating Hillary Clinton and a 99% chance of beating Bernie Sanders.
On that note, we want whatever he’s on, please and thank you.
The crazed professor announced his hypothesis on Monday night during the Stony Brook Alumni Association event at the SUNY Global Center in Manhattan.
“The bottom line is that the primary model, using also the cyclical movement, makes it almost certain that Donald Trump will be the next president,” Norpoth said. “When I started out with this kind of display a few months ago, I thought it was sort of a joke. Well, I’ll tell you right now, it ain’t a joke anymore.”
A joke it is not. More like a really, really terrifying nightmare you can’t seem to wake up from.
Per The Daily Caller,
“Trump beats Hillary 54.7 percent to 45.3 percent” in terms of popular vote, Norpoth prophesied. “This is almost too much to believe,” he told audience members described by the student as nervously laughing. But he is convinced his model won’t be wrong.
“Take it to the bank,” Norpoth confidently suggested.
Unfortunately, the man has some legitimacy and may be guessing in the right direction. Norpoth, a 1974 University of Michigan Ph.D. recipient who specializes in electoral behavior alignment also announced that there’s a 61% chance Trump will be the nominee (which, obviously, if he’s supposedly going to win the whole thing by at least 97%).
Norpoth’s general election formula measures candidates’ performances in primaries in caucuses to gauge party unity and voter excitement. It also focuses on certain patterns in electoral cycles. One major assumption is that the party which has just held the presidency for two consecutive terms is less likely to win a third term.
The model has been correct for every election since 1912 except for the 1960 election — which pitted winner John F. Kennedy against loser Richard Nixon.
In total, Norpoth observed, his forecasting formula he has created has been correct 96.1 percent of the time since 1912
At least Cape Breton will always be an option. But really – 97%?! That number is waaaayyy too high.
Norpoth send us over some of the good stuff, cool?
[H/T: The Daily Caller]