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A remnant of Soviet spacecraft Kosmos 482 is headed for Earth this week after spending over half a century in space. The craft is expected to crash around May 9th or 10th, but scientists can’t pinpoint exactly where it’ll hit.
The uncertainty stems from several factors. This Soviet-era spacecraft was originally designed for a Venus landing mission 53 years ago before it malfunctioned. Now, as it approaches Earth, it might break apart during reentry or – perhaps more concerning – remain intact as it plunges through our atmosphere.
“Because the probe was designed to withstand entry into the Venus atmosphere, it’s possible the probe will survive reentry at Earth and reach the surface,” NASA explained.
Tough Landing Ahead
Marco Langbroek, a Dutch scientist from Delft University of Technology, doesn’t expect a gentle arrival. “It likely will be a hard impact: I doubt the parachute deployment system will still work after 53 years and with dead batteries. There are many uncertain factors in whether the lander will survive reentry, though, including that this will be a long shallow reentry trajectory, and the age of the object.”
If the spacecraft stays in one piece, Langbroek estimates it could strike Earth’s surface at roughly 150 mph.
Where will it land? That’s anyone’s guess.
Given that water covers most of our planet, the half-ton spacecraft will probably splash down in an ocean. However, Langbroek cautioned that while the chances of it hitting a populated area “are not particularly high,” they’re “not zero.”
The Aerospace Corporation – a federally funded research group – has made its latest prediction. As of this writing, they believe Kosmos 482 will crash at 10:37 PM ET on May 9.
NASA added some perspective on Thursday: “The time and location of atmospheric reentry should be known more accurately over the next day or so, but the uncertainty will be fairly significant right up to reentry.”
