The 2016 NBA Draft Lottery airs tonight on ESPN at 8 PM, but the lottery itself takes place behind closed doors earlier in the day. Learn everything you need to know about the NBA Draft Lottery below, from how the complicated system works, to how many chances your favorite team has of securing a Top 3 pick.
What is the NBA Draft Lottery?
The NBA Draft Lottery is the system that the National Basketball Association uses to determine which teams get priority in drafting NBA rookies. The 14 worst teams from the past season get priority in an attempt to give the league parity, but there’s still an element of luck and surprise.
The first year the NBA used the Draft Lottery was in 1985, when the New York Knicks won the draft lottery and subsequently drafted Patrick Ewing from Georgetown.
How Does The NBA Draft Lottery Work?
Rather than just giving the worst team the first pick, the NBA uses a lottery system to keep things interesting (and to prevent teams from racing each other to the bottom of the standings to win the first pick). But only the first three draft picks are determined by the lottery. Picks 4-14 are awarded to the teams in reverse order of their records.
So how does the system itself work?
14 different numbered balls (numbered 1-14) are dropped into a lottery machine. Four of those balls are then picked at random to create a four-digit combination.
That combination is then compared to the chart below, which corresponds with a team name. The chart has been weighted to give the worse teams more chances to be called. This year, the Sixers have 250 possible combinations (out of 1001) that can be called. Once a team secures a draft spot, they cannot be chosen again.
NBA Lottery Chances and Odds
Here are the number of balls, followed by the team name, then the odds they win the #1 pick, and the odds they win a Top 3 pick.
1. 250 (PHI) 26.90%, 67.68%
2. 199 (LAL) 19.9%, 55.8%
3. 156 (BOS via BRK) 15.6%, 46.9%
4. 119 (PHX) 11.9%, 37.8%
5. 88 (MIN) 8.8%, 29.1%
6. 63 (NOP) 6.3%, 21.5%
7. 43 (DEN via NYK) 4.3%, 15.0%
T8. 19 (SAC) 1.9%, 6.8%
T8. 19 (TOR via DEN) 1.9%, 6.8%
T8. 18 (MIL) 1.8%, 6.5%
11. 8 (ORL) 0.8%, 2.9%
12. 7 (UTA) 0.7%, 2.5 percent
13. 6 (PHX via WAS) 0.6%, 2.2%
14. 5 (CHI) 0.5%, 1.8%
If the Lakers don’t win a Top-3 pick (they have a 55.8% of doing so), they lose their draft pick to the Sixers.
