Hurricane Irma Models: GFS, ECMWF Models & Path

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Hurricane Irma is inching closer and closer to the continental United States, as it tears through the Caribbean on Thursday. Irma is expected to strike the Florida Keys as well as South Florida by Saturday. Miami-Dade County and coastal areas of Georgia have already been ordered to evacuate in anticipation of Irma.

Currently, the storm is on its way to the Bahamas and the northern coast of Cuba. The storm is also swinging towards the tourist destination of Turk and Caicos. Expect plenty of ring and very strong wind the area. By Saturday, Irma is predicted to finally make landfall in the United States.

Speaking of the U.S., many people are relying upon the United State’s GFS model as well as Europe’s ECMWF model. Both models have shown similar and contrasting predictions for Irma’s path. But by 2 P.M. European model update, which displayed a deep contrast between both model system in projecting the storm’s predicted path.

euro opens the western window up again. Had west bias in Matthew GFS to east, its control in the middle pic.twitter.com/1OScLr1UKi

— Joe Bastardi (@BigJoeBastardi) September 7, 2017

The state of Florida, in particular, has been on red alert since Monday, as it prepares for the storm. Many are looking for all the various models projecting the trajectory of Irma, whether it’s the GFS, ECMWF or the spaghetti model.

Here’s a video displaying the latest GFS model of Irma…

GA is not liking the latest GFS #Irma pic.twitter.com/WsMn9F1p7Q

— 🌀 Steven Payne 🌀 (@stevenpayne28) September 7, 2017

“The US analog to the European model is the Global Forecast System. It has a lower resolution, and it typically doesn’t perform quite as well. However, this GFS model has some benefits: it runs four times a day, and NOAA freely makes the data available to anyone who wants it,” reports Ars Technica.

Here’s the latest ECMWF European model providing a graphic and video (as of September 7; 2:00 P.M. EST):

If Hurricane #Irma takes ECMWF 12z slightly west track, huge wind gusts for Florida from Keys to Miami, Tampa & Orlando, Tallahassee & Jax. pic.twitter.com/SmONxW0I5S

— Ryan Maue (@RyanMaue) September 7, 2017

Ugh, come on. This really is not the model run we wanted to see from ECMWF 12z at all. Hurricane #Irma 100 miles further west. Bleh. pic.twitter.com/uofm73qHW1

— Ryan Maue (@RyanMaue) September 7, 2017

Ars Technica of the ECMWF says,”This forecast system has superior hardware to run its calculations. But more importantly, it has a method by which it better assimilates real-world data—observations from weather networks around the world, atmospheric soundings, reconnaissance aircraft, and much more—into its calculations.”












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